The Cost of Equality? Gender Role Attitudes and Fertility Preferences in Contemporary China

Abstract

As China experiences a continuous decline in fertility rates since the 1970s, understanding how evolving gender norms shape reproductive preferences has become increasingly important. Al- though public progress in education and labor force participation has accelerated, traditional gender expectations in private domain remain persistent. This study examines how gender role attitudes influence fertility desires using six waves of nationally representative data from the Chinese Gen- eral Social Survey from 2010 to 2021. I develop a theoretical model in which egalitarian beliefs can increase the opportunity cost of childbearing, particularly for women. Regression results show that, after adjustment for demographic and socioeconomic factors, a one-unit increase in the gen- der role attitude index is associated with a 2 percent decline in women’s fertility desire on average, and up to 3 percent in 2021. This association is especially pronounced in egalitarian communities, where the effect reaches 4 percent in 2021. For men, however, the relationship is weaker and less significant. To address endogeneity, I use high-speed rail expansion as an instrumental variable. While the instrument is weak, it supports a negative causal relationship between egalitarian atti- tudes and fertility desire, particularly among women. These findings show that fertility decisions are influenced by gender role attitudes and suggest that, without supportive policies, shifts toward more egalitarian beliefs may contribute to the continued decline in fertility in China.