The Stories We Tell: An Analysis of Candidate Driven Narrative and its Impact on Electoral Outcomes in Senate Campaigns

Abstract

Most American political theory recognizes that electoral campaigns are driven by how much money the candidate has and by incumbency. However, this doesn’t explain 100% of electoral outcomes, which presents the question, what else factors into determining a candidate’s vote share? This study argues a candidate's use of narrative or how they tell their own story is the third element that drives electoral outcomes. The primary goal of this project is to determine if narrative plays a role in campaign outcomes, alongside financial factors and incumbency. This thesis utilizes an additive model for narrative power and its impact on electoral outcomes in the form of vote share, specifically looking at contemporary Senate elections. The study hypothesizes that a strong electoral campaign narrative utilizes collective identity building, clarity in identification of issues, exigency, and clear calls to action, which I classify as the narrative power model. These four factors are hypothesized to create a narrative driven by the candidate that allows voters to recognize the candidate as a representative part of their community, the necessary leader for the moment, and gives voters clear tools to put the candidate in elected office. The narrative power model utilizes data from campaign websites from 2012 to 2024, as this is the most consistently available data source that comprehensively captures the story a candidate is telling about themselves. This study finds that candidates who score higher on the narrative power model gain a higher percentage of the vote share and a higher number of dollars raised. This model is particularly effective when looking at how challengers utilize narrative in their campaign communications. The study also finds that a call to action and collective identity building are the most significant narrative tools for challengers as they share their story with voters. The findings of this project aim to explain voter behavior and the democratic consequences of storytelling. It bridges theory and practice to understand the degree in which storytelling plays a prominent role in democracy.