The Impact of Brexit on European Union Agricultural Trade

Abstract

The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union marked a broader retreat from globalization, affecting both trade relationships and government budgets. The majority of existing research on Brexit’s impact on trade focuses on the UK’s experience, overlooking the realities that EU member states faced after losing one of their top budget contributors and adapting to shifts in trade agreements with a global economic power. To evaluate the impact of Brexit on European Union agricultural trade, this study follows a research design that contains both a time series and a comparative analysis. Annual data points were collected from 2015, the year before the Brexit referendum, through 2023, which is the most recent year with reliable data. To accurately represent the EU within research limitations, France, Germany, and Poland were selected for study. To assess the agricultural trade of EU member states before and after Brexit, four subjects were selected: each country’s economic dependence on agriculture over time, the effects of EU agricultural policy shifts on member-states, overall bilateral agriculture trade flows by member-state over time, and international trade by agricultural product category. This research led to the conclusion that Brexit caused small trade shifts, but may have created larger consequences for the EU budget, CAP, and investment in less wealthy member states. This research adds to ongoing discussions regarding the various consequences of Brexit, as well as larger debates on the importance of European Union membership in an increasingly evolving world.