Powering the transition: Examining the U.S.-China Rivalry in Its Manifestations in Brazil’s Clean Energy Transition

Abstract

This thesis explores how the dynamics of the China-U.S. rivalry (New Cold War) shape the green energy transition in emerging economies. China and the U.S. are increasingly competing for access to resources and for geopolitical and economic centrality. As competing powers, both nations are increasingly using clean energy investments as a hegemonic tool to expand their influence and reach. This research uses Brazil as a case study to explore the manifestations of a New Cold War in a developing economy long understood to be under American influence. Using Brazil as a case study, analyze two distinct periods, the Cold War and the New Cold War, to explore the connections between energy investments and hegemonic building patterns. For the United States during the Cold War, I employ a literature and historical review. For China in the New Cold War, I employ spatial and financial analyses using data from the ICLAC (Impacts of China in Latin America and the Caribbean) repository. Initial findings suggest that the U.S. obtained significant hegemonic power by investing in larger-scale energy projects through a US-led multilateral organization. China is rapidly and persistently expanding its reach by acquiring green energy infrastructure through its state-owned enterprises. Since the Cold War, the U.S. has largely ceased making major investments in the Brazilian energy sector. China's approach in Brazil is marked by an intense focus on the energy sector, which was dominated by the U.S. but in which the U.S. no longer has significant ownership or influence, indicating a move to fill a gap rather than pose a direct challenge. Overall, Brazil benefits from China's growing influence through increased foreign direct investment. However, only minimally in energy production, as China has focused on acquisitions and built a few new clean-energy infrastructure projects.